å®â€”—Futures trader Mr. Li recently received a short message from the futures company. According to the news, the bleached sulphate softwood futures contract (code "SP") will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 27, 2018. It will be auctioned at 8:55-9:00 on the day of the listing and will open at 9:00.
In the past two years, new varieties of commodity futures market have been listed intensively. “I†– the first futures contract product of China's pulp industry – bleached kraft pulp (pulp) futures, after five years of long research and preparation, finally ranked The "phase" class is about to become the 50th member of this market.
Member No. 50 will arrive
In people's daily life, the "I" figure can be seen everywhere. Newsprint, printing paper, writing paper, magazine paper, specialty paper, wrapping paper and cardboard are all members of my paper family. Especially during the booming development of e-commerce, the increasing use of express packaging paper and paperboard has become an indispensable part of people's lives. In recent years, every change in the price of the “Double Eleven†packaging paper and the concept of A-share papermaking have always been particularly eye-catching.
Because the above-mentioned paper products are extensive and indispensable in people's lives, to some extent, paper price fluctuations are also regarded as a "barometer" reflecting the economy.
But this indefinite weather table has made people, especially those in the paper industry chain, "already enough." According to research data, the price of pulp (drifting needle) fell below 4,100/ton due to the financial crisis in 2008. However, in February 2010, the price of pulp rose due to the magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile, one of the major producers of pulp. Up to nearly 8,000/ton high. Subsequently, supply and demand gradually balanced, and the price stabilized at around 5,000/ton.
Last year, a similar scene was re-enacted. Due to the recent low market stocks in July and August and the impact of domestic environmental protection policies, the price of bleaching needles rose from 5100/ton to 7575/ton between July and December.
"In 2018, with the gradual arrival of cargo in the previous period, the port inventory increased significantly, and the market supply situation eased. The 2017 environmental protection inspection operation shut down the production capacity in some areas, resulting in limited increase in pulp demand, and the market gradually digested the waste paper policy. The impact of factors such as the current price is running smoothly." The agency pointed out.
This situation is closely related to my "Shanghai style", because bleached sulphate needle pulp for the Chinese market, almost all need to import, the external dependence is close to 100%. The world's pulp faucets are mainly concentrated in the United States, followed by Europe and Japan. This time, the 11 pulp futures deliverable brands identified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are also from overseas, namely Canada, Finland, Russia and Chile.
Therefore, in the relevant futures trading rules, my delivery warehouse is located along the coast. It is mainly concentrated in the main ports of Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other places, including Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Huangpu Port and Tianjin Port.
In China, from upstream pulp mills, midstream traders to downstream paper mills, downstream dealers, and end customers, they have to pay attention to the market trend of overseas markets for a long time, frequently adjust their trade strategies, and alleviate the volatility of overseas raw material prices. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2017, there were 2,754 paper-making enterprises above designated size in China; the main business income was 921.5 billion, an increase of 15.37%; the total profit was 66.6 billion, the total assets were 1031.7 billion, the asset-liability ratio was 55.91%, and the total liabilities were 576.8 billion; Among the 2,754 paper-making enterprises in the statistics, there are 281 loss-making enterprises, accounting for 10%.
Pulp futures is a milestone new tool for the domestic paper industry, which has been in the passive low position of the global paper industry chain for a long time.
“Traders hope to increase the volatility of pulp spot prices through pulp futures tools. Traditional small and medium mills hope to reduce costs through pulp futures tools.†Some commented on the changes I might bring to this market.
The new pricing era of the pulp market
The futures price refers to the price of the futures contract subject price formed by the open bidding method in the currency field.
According to industry insiders, futures prices are formed by a large number of traders in the exchange through centralized bidding. The quotes of market participants fully reflect their expectation that the goods may change in supply and demand in the future. The futures price formed under the price expectation can reflect the overall market price expectation more comprehensively and realistically, and it is expected and authoritative.
In terms of domestic pulp prices, Guo Qinglong, an analyst with papermaking industry of Huachuang Securities, analyzed that the factors affecting pulp prices include domestic paper mill inventory, domestic new capacity, port inventory fluctuations, weak season factors, exchange rate fluctuations, environmental reasons, Regular or unplanned overhaul, unexpected events (strikes, earthquakes, etc.), overseas market linkages, trader inventory, etc. of foreign pulp mills.
“Long-term look at the planting cycle and cost of wood, macro, medium-term inventory or supply and demand, short-term price difference, pay attention to the linkage between price and supply and demand.†According to CITIC Futures research and analysis, in addition, upstream and downstream profits (raw material prices, labor costs) ), the price difference of substitutes, the difference between internal and external prices (including the difference between production and sales, especially the ruble, the United States, the Real) and other factors can not be ignored.
Regardless of the price fluctuation caused by the situation, for enterprises in the paper industry chain, they can use futures tools for risk management according to their actual conditions.
First of all, for pulp companies, not only can the sales profit in the futures market be sold in advance when the disk is raised, but also the inventory value, point basis sales, and arbitrage of related products. "For example, using the fluctuation law of the price difference between needles, broadleaf and dissolving pulp to do the related hedging, generally it is to participate in the selection of the surface of the surface of the non-standard pulp, but because the disk surface is a short configuration, you need to pay attention to the extrusion of the delivery month. Warehouse risk, cautious participation." CITIC Futures analysis said.
Secondly, for traders, they can participate in the market more flexibly, and comprehensively use the basis trading, inventory management, inner jacket profit, related product arbitrage, and current linkage to maintain or increase profits.
Once again, for the paper mill, it is possible to carry out operations such as lock purchase cost, point price purchase, and internal and external disk arbitrage according to its own characteristics.
"paper paste" investment opportunities
Regardless of the size of the industry or the design of the contract, I am considered to be among the “small varietiesâ€, but small varieties often have opportunities in investment opportunities. Before I officially debuted, some futures investors remained hovering about the investment opportunities that this pulp futures may bring.
According to the announcement of the previous issue, the trading unit of the pulp futures contract is 10 tons/hand, the minimum price is 2/ton, and the price limit is ±3% of the settlement price of the previous trading day. According to the relevant provisions of the “Shanghai Futures Exchange Risk Management Measuresâ€, the minimum trading margin is 4% of the contract value, the delivery unit is 20 tons, and the contract month is January to December.
Based on the current spot price of around 6,200/ton, the 4000/ton margin can be used to trade first-hand pulp futures.
From the perspective of the 3% limit of the daily limit, according to the average price of 5,000/ton of bleaching needle in the past three years, the maximum fluctuation of the first-hand pulp futures will be 150/ton per trading day.
According to the analysis of investment institutions, similar to other futures varieties, trading opportunities on this variety include intertemporal, speculative, hedging and asset allocation. Intertemporal operations can be performed based on the strengths and weaknesses of the fundamental near-term contract and the delivery logic. In addition, pulp investment involves the concepts of environmental protection, weather, transportation, exchange rate, etc., and can be combined with other varieties of chemical products.
It is worth mentioning that whenever paper prices fluctuate, domestic paper concept stocks are often heard.
"Pulp pulp futures market, the market finally ushered in the 'paper paste' market, in the end the long and short who is paper, can only eat melon." Futures trader Li said.
This article is posted on the website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.
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